Is It Safe To Fly Yet? Kinda.
Much information and opinions have been coming out as of late on this topic. While much of it sounds hopeful and optimistic, the reality is that it just may actually be when taking the entire flying experience.
At the time of writing this article, no cure or vaccine has emerged yet for COVID-19, but there is one that has shown good potential and is months away from reaching public distribution. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) in the U.S., and its counterparts such as the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and urging caution when traveling by land, air, or sea. Many countries are either blocking travelers, or requiring proof of recent negative test results, or even quarantining travelers who arrive.
Most people are avoiding air travel unless they need to be somewhere.
This is very understandable and is causing much anguish to commercial aviation and the travel industry. Private jet travel has done quite well for those who can afford to avoid flying commercial, not to mention having a safer environment with fewer people around you.
But for most of us who need to get on an airplane, flying coach it is.
The Decline in Commercial Air Travel
ICAO (International Civil Air Organization) published a study in early November 2020 entitled ‘Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis” which outlined the impact of COVID-19 on the global air transport industry. Figure 1 was extracted from this and highlighted the key high-level numbers.
International travel has suffered the most, with a downturn of an average of 66%, as countries have either shut down or limited international travelers. Domestic travel (all countries) is down an average of ~40%. The full study can be found at https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/COVID-19/ICAO_Coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf
According to the Airlines for America trade group, domestic travel in the USA was down 62% (as of early November) from a year ago, and international was down 75%. America has been harder hit than most other countries with this pandemic, and our travel industry reflects this reality.
People are avoiding air travel in general, but let’s examine how safe it is.
Studies on the Safety of Commercial Aircraft Travel
There have been recent studies released by several sources that have put the situation in a relatively positive light, with caveats in some cases.
One is from the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health is an ongoing study entitled the Aviation Public Health Initiative (APHI). According to their website, they are “studying current aircraft, airline, and airport practices and their impact on public health during the COVID-19 pandemic. A team of environmental, infectious disease and social scientists assembled by the National Preparedness Leadership Initiative is reviewing current research as well as analyses conducted by the industry. The findings will report on strategies and tactics to reduce risks of disease transmission during air travel.”
They published their phase one findings and find that by using a layered approach to risk mitigation, the scientific evidence shows that there is a low risk of SARS-COV-2 (COVID-19) transmission on aircraft. The key findings show that due to the frequent exchange of air and HEPA filters onboard planes, 99+% of the virus-containing particles are eliminated from the cabin’s air, which is significantly better than most common settings such as grocery stores or dining establishments. The filtering of air efficiently counters the proximity travelers are subject to during flights.
In addition to the air filtration systems, they identify the following needed actions:
• Wearing facemasks by passengers and crew throughout the entire journey
• Using safe-distancing protocols and provision of strong ventilation during boarding and deplaning (this includes the jetway ramps)
• Aircraft operators performing disinfection of all high-touch aircraft surfaces to remove possible contamination
• Having passengers attest (and prove with a recent test?) that they do not have COVID-19 related symptoms and commitment to adhere to an airline’s mask policy
The report’s upcoming second phase will concentrate on the curb-to-curb airport environment and the indoor air quality inside airports.
Another notable study is by the U.S. Department of Defense, DARPA, the biodefense company Zeteo Tech, Boeing, United Airlines, and others to understand how coronavirus could be spread inside of a commercial aircraft. The DoD’s Transportation Command uses commercial charter flights from airlines to transport passengers on official military duty and their families. They used a fluorescent aerosol spray, which was discharged from a mannequin (Figure 2) that was placed in various seats in a Boeing 767–300 and a 777–200 to simulate a flow of particles around their cabins.
According to government reports, “mannequins with and without face masks sat in various seats on an aircraft while small amounts of fluorescent tracer particles, or simulated infectious particles, were released at 2 to 4-minute rates during a combination of ground and in-flight events. Real-time fluorescent particle sensors were placed throughout the aircraft at the breathing zone of passengers to retrieve the data. The tracer amounts (were) measured in multiple rows for four sections of an airframe: forward, forward-mid, mid-aft, and aft.”
Over 300 tests were performed with variations such as having the mannequin emit aerosol at various strengths to imitate breathing, coughing, and speaking. Some of the tests included having the mannequin wearing / not wearing a mask. The evaluators also tested releasing particles into the cockpit in addition to the cabin and while parked at a terminal with the cabin door open as well as having the doors closed but having air recirculation powered via an auxiliary power unit (APU).
The study concluded that “aerosol exposure risk is minimal even during long-duration flights,” with the maximum risk being to passengers sitting in the same row as the mannequin. Further details have not been formally released yet and apparently, the study is being peer-reviewed before it being published.
One of the critical qualifiers was that aircraft with HEPA filtration need to have a “very, very high air exchange rate of every two to five minutes or two to three minutes.”
One last study, which is very interesting, involves a real-world situation that showed that masks on planes could make a significant difference. On January 22, when the pandemic was emerging, a male passenger flew from Wuhan, China, to Toronto, reportedly having a dry cough. His wife developed a cough the next day, and both tested positive for COVID-19 afterward. But interestingly, this passenger did not infect any other passengers because he wore a mask during the flight. The aircraft had approximately 350 passengers on board for this 15-hour flight, and several of the passengers close to this man did develop a cough but did not test positive for COVID.
The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that contact tracing when symptomatic passengers are identified be performed on two rows in front and behind of such a passenger. However, ~50% of airplane-related transmissions of COVID-19 have occurred beyond these rows, according to reports.
But Is It Safe?
These and other studies provide a positive picture of air travel, as long as strict rules are followed by everyone. In real life, this is not always the reality as some passengers try to remove their masks or resist wearing them, creating challenges for the flight crews. And there has been some pushback on the results of some of the industry studies by medical personnel and disease experts.
You can minimize your risks by taking some precautions as a traveler, and here are some actions to take.
Before you fly, if you feel any symptoms of COVID-19, stay home. Also, do not travel if you have not been tested recently before your flight. Putting other people at risk is selfish. Most airlines have more generous flight change policies at this time, so make use of them if you are not feeling well.
Next, choose your airline and seats wisely. Many airlines (not all) have a middle seat open for social distancing reasons, but not all do. Do your research before booking so that if you are someone who is high-risk for COVID, you can choose the best airline and flight to meet your needs. Do not put yourself at needless risk.
While all airlines have a mask-wearing policy now, not all masks are equal. Use a better mask, such as the KN95, to minimize your risk while flying and to protect others from you. Consider having a spare mask if needed (better to have too many than not enough). Face shields maybe even better.
There has been one study from China that people that who wear glasses every day might be less susceptible to COVID-19 infection. One reason for this may be that eyeglasses may reduce the wearer’s risk because they discourage wearers from touching their eyes, thereby lessening the chances of transferring the virus from the hands to the eyes. So you now have an excellent excuse to wear your cool sunglasses all of the time.
Wash your hands often, carry a sanitizer solution bottle or wipes, and use these liberally. Do not have blind faith that the cleaning crew had time to wipe your area correctly, so do it yourself.
If possible, skip eating or drinking inflight (long flights are an exception). Use a straw to drink while leaving your mask mostly on.
Try to keep your distance from others on the jet bridge due to the usual lack of ventilation.
Be sure to aim your seat’s air nozzle directly towards your face to enjoy the HEPA-filtered air. Avoid using the airplane blanket.
OK, enough nannying.
Conclusion
Yes, there are risks in regards to COVID-19 when flying, but they apparently are better than being in other crowded public scenarios at a store, gathering, or restaurant. But by being better informed, planning your trip well, and taking precautions, you can minimize your odds of being infected. Be smart.